2008 N.L. West Projections

One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
2. Colorado Rockies 90-72
3. San Diego Padres 88-74
4. Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
5. San Francisco 61-101


Once again the N.L. West will be a 4-team slugfest and Baseball's best division.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71): Joe Torre is known as a guy whose best attribute is the ability to handle the egos of overpaid veteran superstars. The Dodgers are a team that has been plagued by in-fighting between it's veterans and up-and-coming stars. The Dodgers are also a team that is going to rely heavily on it's young stars in 2008. Matt Kemp is an All-Star in the making, and Andre Ethier is an above-average Major League outfielder, and is a better option for the Dodgers than Juan Pierre, who perennially leads the league in outs. Bounce-back years from Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones make the Dodgers an offensive powerhouse. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe will continue to post solid numbers for L.A., Chad Billingsley is an ace, Hiroki Kuroda may be the league's best 4th starter, and the Clayton Kershaw era will begin soon. Takashi Saito is an elite closer, and Johnathan Broxton is an elite closer-in-waiting. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid, assuming Joe Torre doesn't throw them until their arms fall off.

2. Colorado Rockies (90-72): Like the Milwaukee Brewers, the Rockies aren't sneaking up anyone this year. Matt Holliday is one of the league's best hitters, and Brad Hawpe's improvement against left-handed pitching provides Colorado with one the National League's top one-two punches. Garrett Atkins continues to be underrated, Troy Tulowitzki will enjoy a fine season at SS, Todd Helton remains an on-base machine and should hit .315 again, and a healthy Willy Taveras will score 125 runs atop that lineup. The bullpen is solid. The question marks come from the starting rotation. Jeff Francis is no ace, but he is solid and he's a winner. The rest of the rotation is suspect, though Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have loads of ability.

3. San Diego Padres (88-74): Kevin Towers has this uncanny ability for sniffing out good major league middle relievers (See: Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Kevin Cameron). This year's candidate might be Joe Thatcher. Jake Peavy is one of the NL's two best pitchers, and Greg Maddux is still the smartest pitcher in the league. Randy Wolf should be solid if healthy, and if Mark Prior stays healthy he will be a major boon to that rotation. I don't expect much from Jim Edmonds, but it won't matter because Scott Hairston can hit. Demoting Chase Headley was a questionable decision, but he'll be back sooner rather than later, and his bat is more than ready. Adrian Gonzalez is a star, Kevin Kouzmanoff will be an above-average 3B at the plate, and Khalil Greene will lead all ML shortstops in HR and RBI.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74): Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are coming off career years at the plate, and while neither is likely to repeat their performances, both should come fairly close. Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young are young hitters who will be asked to, and should be able to, shoulder most of the offensive load, but they likely won't be able to outhit Colorado or L.A. Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, and Juan Cruz make up a very good bullpen, regardless of who gets the saves. Brandon Webb is an ace, Dan Haren is a very good number 2, but a lot of the D-Backs fortunes will align with the health of Randy Johnson.

5. San Francisco (61-101): Woof. These guys might not score 600 runs this season. I'm serious. They might as well call Angel Villalona up now. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both have "ace" written all over them, but unless they both spend a ton of time in the batting cage, the Giants aren't going to score enough for these guys to win. Bengie Molina is going to hit clean-up for crying out loud.