2008 N.L. East Projections

One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on the analysis of statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end; so, I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.

1. New York Mets 95-67
2. Philadelphia Phillies 93-69
3. Atlanta Braves 87-75
4. Washington Nationals 70-92
5. Florida Marlins 68-94

This is not going to be the slam-dunk that a lot of people thought it would be when the Mets aquired Johan Santana. The Mets and Phillies should provide us with a great rivalry for the next several years, but this time the Mets hang on to take the division.

1. New York Mets (95-67): Johan Santana might win 25 games at Shea. A healthy Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez could provide the Mets with one of the National League's best rotations, or it could be a complete disaster after Santana. David Wright and Jose Reyes are two of the very best young hitters in the game, but there are injury concerns everywhere else. The bullpen is solid, especially with a healthy Duaner Sanchez. Once Sanchez regains his form and his role as top set-up man, look for Aaron Heilman to get dealt.

2. Philadelphia Phillies(93-69): The Phightin' Phils added plenty of power this offseason with Pedro Feliz and Geoff Jenkins, but the pitching is still suspect. Cole Hamels is on the verge of becoming a true ace, but after Brett Myers there are a lot of problems. There is almost zero chance Kyle Kendrick pitches as well as he did last year. Both Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon are injury risks, and there isn't much in the bullpen after that. Pedro Feliz's on-base ability is less than inspiring, and Jenkins is pretty much a platoon guy, but Rollins, Howard, and Utley are still elite and will do a lot of damage all on their own.

3. Atlanta Braves (87-75): This is a team that just will not go away. John Smoltz may be beginning to show signs of his age, but he is still a great pitcher. If Mike Hampton can make 25 starts this year at anywhere near the level he's shown in spring training, the Braves are going to hang around this race well into the summer. The Braves bullpen is better than Philly's, and the Braves were 3rd in the National League in runs scored in '07, with Mark Teixeira for only half a season. Mike Gonzalez will provide a big boost to the bullpen when he returns this summer.

4. Washington Nationals (70-92): This should be a tight race for last place. It's The new stadium should benefit Ryan Zimmerman, never good when you release your Opening Day starter a week before the season starts.who will emerge as one the N.L.'s top 3B, as well as Austin Kearns, who should hit 25-30 home runs as Washington's everday right fielder. The bottom line is pitching, though, and the Nationals have none. Zip. The new Opening Day starter is Odalis Perez. Dreadful. Tyler Clippard should get a shot in '08, and we may see Ross Detwiler sometime this season. They're going to have to hit to compete, and that means Lastings Milledge will have to break out completely, Elijah Dukes will have to stay on the field and out of prison, and Nick Johnson will have to stay healthy. Good luck with all of that. Chad Cordero should be dealt by the All-Star break, leaving Jon Rauch to close games.

5. Florida Marlins (68-94): Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin are a year away from making real contributions. Jeremy Hermida can't stay healthy enough to realize his potential (though this may be the year). Jorge Cantu has a starting spot. On the bright side, they still have Hanley Ramirez, Scott Olsen is finally putting it together, and Dan Uggla's batting average can't get worse. They also don't have to worry about any of those pesky fans making a bunch of noise while they're trying to play, since there won't be any there.