2008 A.L. East Projections

One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.

1. New York Yankees 98-64
2. Boston Red Sox 95-67
3. Tampa Bay Rays 82-80
4. Toronto Blue Jays 80-82
5. Baltimore Orioles 59-103

Like it or not, the two best teams in baseball still reside in New York and Boston, and despite what most want to believe, the Yankees and Red Sox will both coast into the playoffs once again.

1. New York Yankees (98-64): Am I a Yankees fan? Yes. Does that have something to do with me picking them to finish first in the A.L. East? Probably, but the Yankees showed everyone last year in nearly erasing a 14-game deficit to catch the eventual World Champs that when they're healthy no one is better. That being said, health is still the major concern in New York. Andy Pettitte's back problems seem to be minor right now, but at 35 they're a bigger concern than Josh Beckett's back problems in Boston. Chien-Ming Wang may not be the playoff ace the Yankees need, but he's a very solid number two, having won 19 games each of the last two years. With the emergence of Phil Hughes, who is looking more and more like a #1, and Ian Kennedy, who is already a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, there is far less concern with the Yankee staff heading into '08 than in '07. We all know the Yankees can hit, and the Yankees are deep enough that Joe Girardi should be able to give Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon enough rest to keep them healthy. With Joba Chamberlain in the Yankee bullpen for at least half the season, the Yankees will see improvement there, as well. The Yankees also have an embarrassment of riches in the system in the way of young arms, so acquiring help through the trade market won't be much of a problem should the need arise.

2. Boston Red Sox (95-67): Josh Beckett's back spasms are only a minor concern right now, but with Curt Schilling on the shelf already, they can ill-afford to lose Beckett. Clay Buchholz will likely be on a short leash as far as his innings are concerned. Daisuke Matsuzaka still has to prove he can pitch every 5th day for an entire season. The bullpen is still one of baseball's best. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz will have their typical huge seasons, Julio Lugo can't possibly be that bad again, and Jacoby Ellsbury is an upgrade in center over Coco Crisp.

3. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80): Baseball is losing it's mind. The Rays and the Royals finishing above .500. God help us. The truth is, this team is deeper in young talent than anyone in the majors, and they're on the verge of making a run for the playoffs. It won't happen in '08, but it's not far away. They mishandled the Evan Longoria situation, but it won't be long until he's the everyday 3B. David Price, Wade Davis, and Jake McGee aren't far away, either. Carlos Pena will probably see a dip in batting average, but there's no reason to believe he can't hit 35 HR.

4. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82): The Blue Jays are the trendy pick to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, but I just don't see it. Scott Rolen just can't hit anymore, and David Eckstein never could. They have a couple of good young arms in the rotation and bullpen, but A.J. Burnett's chances of making 30 starts are pretty slim considering it's a feat he's managed twice since 1999. Alex Rios is a star, and bounce-back years from Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay would help, but I still see a 4th place, sub-.500 team.

5.Baltimore Orioles (59-103): I don't even know what to say.