2008 N.L. Central Projections

One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.

1. Chicago Cubs 92-70
2. Cincinnati Reds 89-73
3. Milwaukee Brewers 88-74
4. Houston Astros 85-77
5. St. Louis Cardinals 75-87
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89


1. Chicago Cubs (92-70): Kosuke Fukodome was a solid addition, even if Lou Piniella misuses him. Fukodome should hit 2nd and Soriano should hit 5th, but as long as they keep a consistent lineup they should get off to a better start than last year. Carlos Zambrano is not the elite ace everyone thought he might be, but he is an innings-eating horse and always a potential 20-game winner. Ted Lilly and Rich Hill are solid, Jon Leiber is serviceable as a 4th starter, and Sean Marshall will be nice addition to the rotation if he isn't dealt for Brian Roberts. I don't expect the Ryan Dempster experiment to end well, but the Cubs are deep enough without him. The bullpen is very good with Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and Michael Wurtz. A healthy Kerry Wood makes it even better. Speaking of a Brian Roberts deal, get a load of this:

1. Brian Roberts 2B
2. Kosuke Fukodome RF
3. Derrek Lee 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Alfonso Soriano LF
6. Geovany Soto C
7. Ryan Theriot SS
8. Felix Pie CF

2. Cincinnati Reds (89-73): They'll likely find a way to screw this up. This is one team that is just as likely to be very good as they are to be very bad. Aaron Harang is the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez have both been lights out this spring, but they are young and untested. The bullpen gets a boost with the addition of Francisco Cordero, but his fastball command is still worrisome. Joey Votto should enjoy a fine season if he plays everyday. Corey Patterson could go either way, but if he flops Jay Bruce is waiting to take over, and his bat is ready. Dusty will undoubtedly find a way to get Adam Dunn out of his lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn dealt this year, especially if the Reds fall out of it early.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74): The Brewers aren't sneaking up on anybody this year. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are bonafide studs, and Corey Hart should continue to emerge as one the league's better power/speed threats, but Rickie Weeks may never be the player his potential says he should be, Fielder is unhappy about his contract situation, Bill Hall is changing positions yet again, J.J. Hardy has lost 10 pounds due to an illness (remember Alex Rios, 2006?) and Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, and Manny Parra will always carry injury risks to match their immense talent. Speaking of injury risks, if Eric Gagne gets hurt (which never happens, right?) the Brewers will likely turn to Derrick Turnbow to close games. Yuck.

4. Houston Astros (85-77): This team could lead the N.L. in runs scored in 2008, but the pitching rotation is Roy Oswalt and Pray for Rain. Wandy Rodriguez is the N.L. version of Ervin Santana, Woody Williams is 128 years old, and Shawn Chacon has won a rotation spot. Bleh. The bullpen is solid enough with the addition of Jose Valverde, but they're going to get the Scott Proctor treatment this season.

5. St. Louis Cardinals (75-87): Oh, do these guys stink. Albert Pujols needs Tommy John surgery, and if he goes down this is the worst team baseball. Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement are long-shots to stay healthy, at best. Adam Wainwright is a solid pitcher, but to say there are question marks after him is a bit of an understatement. Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus are another couple of what-ifs, but Ankiel has looked very good this spring. The sooner Colby Rasmus gets to the majors, the better.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates (73-91): Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are both good young pitchers, and Matt Morris should have a better year, but this is probably the most boring, faceless team in baseball. Steven Pearce, Andrew McCutchen, and Neil Walker should give fans a reason to head out to PNC in the second half of '08. The Pirates have a bright future, but it won't be this year.