One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. New York Yankees 98-64
2. Boston Red Sox 95-67
3. Tampa Bay Rays 82-80
4. Toronto Blue Jays 80-82
5. Baltimore Orioles 59-103
Like it or not, the two best teams in baseball still reside in New York and Boston, and despite what most want to believe, the Yankees and Red Sox will both coast into the playoffs once again.
1. New York Yankees (98-64): Am I a Yankees fan? Yes. Does that have something to do with me picking them to finish first in the A.L. East? Probably, but the Yankees showed everyone last year in nearly erasing a 14-game deficit to catch the eventual World Champs that when they're healthy no one is better. That being said, health is still the major concern in New York. Andy Pettitte's back problems seem to be minor right now, but at 35 they're a bigger concern than Josh Beckett's back problems in Boston. Chien-Ming Wang may not be the playoff ace the Yankees need, but he's a very solid number two, having won 19 games each of the last two years. With the emergence of Phil Hughes, who is looking more and more like a #1, and Ian Kennedy, who is already a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, there is far less concern with the Yankee staff heading into '08 than in '07. We all know the Yankees can hit, and the Yankees are deep enough that Joe Girardi should be able to give Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon enough rest to keep them healthy. With Joba Chamberlain in the Yankee bullpen for at least half the season, the Yankees will see improvement there, as well. The Yankees also have an embarrassment of riches in the system in the way of young arms, so acquiring help through the trade market won't be much of a problem should the need arise.
2. Boston Red Sox (95-67): Josh Beckett's back spasms are only a minor concern right now, but with Curt Schilling on the shelf already, they can ill-afford to lose Beckett. Clay Buchholz will likely be on a short leash as far as his innings are concerned. Daisuke Matsuzaka still has to prove he can pitch every 5th day for an entire season. The bullpen is still one of baseball's best. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz will have their typical huge seasons, Julio Lugo can't possibly be that bad again, and Jacoby Ellsbury is an upgrade in center over Coco Crisp.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80): Baseball is losing it's mind. The Rays and the Royals finishing above .500. God help us. The truth is, this team is deeper in young talent than anyone in the majors, and they're on the verge of making a run for the playoffs. It won't happen in '08, but it's not far away. They mishandled the Evan Longoria situation, but it won't be long until he's the everyday 3B. David Price, Wade Davis, and Jake McGee aren't far away, either. Carlos Pena will probably see a dip in batting average, but there's no reason to believe he can't hit 35 HR.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82): The Blue Jays are the trendy pick to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, but I just don't see it. Scott Rolen just can't hit anymore, and David Eckstein never could. They have a couple of good young arms in the rotation and bullpen, but A.J. Burnett's chances of making 30 starts are pretty slim considering it's a feat he's managed twice since 1999. Alex Rios is a star, and bounce-back years from Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay would help, but I still see a 4th place, sub-.500 team.
5.Baltimore Orioles (59-103): I don't even know what to say.
Monday, March 24, 2008
2008 A.L. Central Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Detroit Tigers 92-70
3. Minnesota Twins 83-79
4. Kansas City Royals 82-80
5. Chicago White Sox 78-84
1. Cleveland Indians (94-68): Fausto Carmona is for real, and C.C Sabathia is a horse. They'll need to have a better year from Travis Hafner, but they have more than enough bats to win this division, and they are hungry.
2. Detroit Tigers (92-70): The addition of Miguel Cabrera gives the Tigers one of the two or three best offenses in baseball. The addition of Dontrelle Willis, however, does nothing positive. After Justin Verlander, the Tiger rotation is below average, with a chance to be downright abysmal. Jeremy Bonderman has a career ERA over 5, Kenny Rogers is getting old, and the bullpen is in shambles with Zumaya and Rodney unable to stay on the field. This team might score 1000 runs, though, and that will get you pretty far; just not into the playoffs.
3. Minnesota Twins (83-79): There is life after Johan Santana. Francisco Liriano looks great, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to be solid, and Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young will provide anough O to keep Minnesota above the .500 mark.
4. Kansas City Royals (82-80): Yes, that's right. A winning record. It's a new day in Kansas City. Gil Meche is proving to be worth at least most of the money he was given, Jose Guillen is a solid addition to the middle of the order, and Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are primed for solid seasons.
5. Chicago White Sox (78-84): The Sox can outhit KC and Minnesota, and they can probably outpitch Detroit, but it won't be enough to keep them out of last. Nick Swisher should have a nice year, Josh Fields needs to be in the lineup everyday, and Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye can still hit. The rotation is less than stellar, though the bullpen should be good. The Sox could finish as high as 3rd, but I'm not really buying it.
1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Detroit Tigers 92-70
3. Minnesota Twins 83-79
4. Kansas City Royals 82-80
5. Chicago White Sox 78-84
1. Cleveland Indians (94-68): Fausto Carmona is for real, and C.C Sabathia is a horse. They'll need to have a better year from Travis Hafner, but they have more than enough bats to win this division, and they are hungry.
2. Detroit Tigers (92-70): The addition of Miguel Cabrera gives the Tigers one of the two or three best offenses in baseball. The addition of Dontrelle Willis, however, does nothing positive. After Justin Verlander, the Tiger rotation is below average, with a chance to be downright abysmal. Jeremy Bonderman has a career ERA over 5, Kenny Rogers is getting old, and the bullpen is in shambles with Zumaya and Rodney unable to stay on the field. This team might score 1000 runs, though, and that will get you pretty far; just not into the playoffs.
3. Minnesota Twins (83-79): There is life after Johan Santana. Francisco Liriano looks great, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to be solid, and Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young will provide anough O to keep Minnesota above the .500 mark.
4. Kansas City Royals (82-80): Yes, that's right. A winning record. It's a new day in Kansas City. Gil Meche is proving to be worth at least most of the money he was given, Jose Guillen is a solid addition to the middle of the order, and Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are primed for solid seasons.
5. Chicago White Sox (78-84): The Sox can outhit KC and Minnesota, and they can probably outpitch Detroit, but it won't be enough to keep them out of last. Nick Swisher should have a nice year, Josh Fields needs to be in the lineup everyday, and Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye can still hit. The rotation is less than stellar, though the bullpen should be good. The Sox could finish as high as 3rd, but I'm not really buying it.
2008 A.L. West Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Seattle Mariners 90-72
2. Los Angeles Angels 90-72
3. Texas Rangers 78-84
4. Oakland Athletics 69-93
A toss-up here. I think the Angels have real injury concerns here, both in the outfield and in the rotation
1. Seattle Mariners (90-72): The Mariners are banking that Erik Bedard and an overpaid Carlos Silva can pitch them to a division title. That might very well happen if Felix Hernandez becomes the ace he's projected to be. The Mariners bullpen is one of baseball's strongest, led by J.J. Putz who is one of the top 2 or 3 closers in the league. The Mariner's lineup doesn't instill fear in anyone, but they might be just good enough. Could a mid-season trade for Adam Dunn put them over the top?
2. Los Angeles Angels (90-72): Lackey and Escobar are both going to begin the year on the DL. Gary Matthews, Jr. is banged up, Vladimir Guerrero is getting old fast, and Torii Hunter was not the thunder that L.A. was looking for to help Vlad. This team is in danger of missing the playoffs in 2008.
3. Texas Rangers (78-84): As usual, the Rangers have no pitching whatsoever. If Milton Bradley stays on the field, however, they can hit. With Hank Blalock healthy and ready for a good year and Josh Hamilton now manning centerfield, the Rangers have more than enough firepower to stay out of the cellar.
4. Oakland (69-93): Hey, Bobby Crosby isn't hurt yet. If he and Rich Harden stay healthy and are productive, they'll likely get dealt, as will Joe Blanton. This team is a candidate to lose 100 games in '08.
1. Seattle Mariners 90-72
2. Los Angeles Angels 90-72
3. Texas Rangers 78-84
4. Oakland Athletics 69-93
A toss-up here. I think the Angels have real injury concerns here, both in the outfield and in the rotation
1. Seattle Mariners (90-72): The Mariners are banking that Erik Bedard and an overpaid Carlos Silva can pitch them to a division title. That might very well happen if Felix Hernandez becomes the ace he's projected to be. The Mariners bullpen is one of baseball's strongest, led by J.J. Putz who is one of the top 2 or 3 closers in the league. The Mariner's lineup doesn't instill fear in anyone, but they might be just good enough. Could a mid-season trade for Adam Dunn put them over the top?
2. Los Angeles Angels (90-72): Lackey and Escobar are both going to begin the year on the DL. Gary Matthews, Jr. is banged up, Vladimir Guerrero is getting old fast, and Torii Hunter was not the thunder that L.A. was looking for to help Vlad. This team is in danger of missing the playoffs in 2008.
3. Texas Rangers (78-84): As usual, the Rangers have no pitching whatsoever. If Milton Bradley stays on the field, however, they can hit. With Hank Blalock healthy and ready for a good year and Josh Hamilton now manning centerfield, the Rangers have more than enough firepower to stay out of the cellar.
4. Oakland (69-93): Hey, Bobby Crosby isn't hurt yet. If he and Rich Harden stay healthy and are productive, they'll likely get dealt, as will Joe Blanton. This team is a candidate to lose 100 games in '08.
2008 N.L. West Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
2. Colorado Rockies 90-72
3. San Diego Padres 88-74
4. Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
5. San Francisco 61-101
Once again the N.L. West will be a 4-team slugfest and Baseball's best division.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71): Joe Torre is known as a guy whose best attribute is the ability to handle the egos of overpaid veteran superstars. The Dodgers are a team that has been plagued by in-fighting between it's veterans and up-and-coming stars. The Dodgers are also a team that is going to rely heavily on it's young stars in 2008. Matt Kemp is an All-Star in the making, and Andre Ethier is an above-average Major League outfielder, and is a better option for the Dodgers than Juan Pierre, who perennially leads the league in outs. Bounce-back years from Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones make the Dodgers an offensive powerhouse. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe will continue to post solid numbers for L.A., Chad Billingsley is an ace, Hiroki Kuroda may be the league's best 4th starter, and the Clayton Kershaw era will begin soon. Takashi Saito is an elite closer, and Johnathan Broxton is an elite closer-in-waiting. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid, assuming Joe Torre doesn't throw them until their arms fall off.
2. Colorado Rockies (90-72): Like the Milwaukee Brewers, the Rockies aren't sneaking up anyone this year. Matt Holliday is one of the league's best hitters, and Brad Hawpe's improvement against left-handed pitching provides Colorado with one the National League's top one-two punches. Garrett Atkins continues to be underrated, Troy Tulowitzki will enjoy a fine season at SS, Todd Helton remains an on-base machine and should hit .315 again, and a healthy Willy Taveras will score 125 runs atop that lineup. The bullpen is solid. The question marks come from the starting rotation. Jeff Francis is no ace, but he is solid and he's a winner. The rest of the rotation is suspect, though Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have loads of ability.
3. San Diego Padres (88-74): Kevin Towers has this uncanny ability for sniffing out good major league middle relievers (See: Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Kevin Cameron). This year's candidate might be Joe Thatcher. Jake Peavy is one of the NL's two best pitchers, and Greg Maddux is still the smartest pitcher in the league. Randy Wolf should be solid if healthy, and if Mark Prior stays healthy he will be a major boon to that rotation. I don't expect much from Jim Edmonds, but it won't matter because Scott Hairston can hit. Demoting Chase Headley was a questionable decision, but he'll be back sooner rather than later, and his bat is more than ready. Adrian Gonzalez is a star, Kevin Kouzmanoff will be an above-average 3B at the plate, and Khalil Greene will lead all ML shortstops in HR and RBI.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74): Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are coming off career years at the plate, and while neither is likely to repeat their performances, both should come fairly close. Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young are young hitters who will be asked to, and should be able to, shoulder most of the offensive load, but they likely won't be able to outhit Colorado or L.A. Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, and Juan Cruz make up a very good bullpen, regardless of who gets the saves. Brandon Webb is an ace, Dan Haren is a very good number 2, but a lot of the D-Backs fortunes will align with the health of Randy Johnson.
5. San Francisco (61-101): Woof. These guys might not score 600 runs this season. I'm serious. They might as well call Angel Villalona up now. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both have "ace" written all over them, but unless they both spend a ton of time in the batting cage, the Giants aren't going to score enough for these guys to win. Bengie Molina is going to hit clean-up for crying out loud.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
2. Colorado Rockies 90-72
3. San Diego Padres 88-74
4. Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
5. San Francisco 61-101
Once again the N.L. West will be a 4-team slugfest and Baseball's best division.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71): Joe Torre is known as a guy whose best attribute is the ability to handle the egos of overpaid veteran superstars. The Dodgers are a team that has been plagued by in-fighting between it's veterans and up-and-coming stars. The Dodgers are also a team that is going to rely heavily on it's young stars in 2008. Matt Kemp is an All-Star in the making, and Andre Ethier is an above-average Major League outfielder, and is a better option for the Dodgers than Juan Pierre, who perennially leads the league in outs. Bounce-back years from Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones make the Dodgers an offensive powerhouse. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe will continue to post solid numbers for L.A., Chad Billingsley is an ace, Hiroki Kuroda may be the league's best 4th starter, and the Clayton Kershaw era will begin soon. Takashi Saito is an elite closer, and Johnathan Broxton is an elite closer-in-waiting. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid, assuming Joe Torre doesn't throw them until their arms fall off.
2. Colorado Rockies (90-72): Like the Milwaukee Brewers, the Rockies aren't sneaking up anyone this year. Matt Holliday is one of the league's best hitters, and Brad Hawpe's improvement against left-handed pitching provides Colorado with one the National League's top one-two punches. Garrett Atkins continues to be underrated, Troy Tulowitzki will enjoy a fine season at SS, Todd Helton remains an on-base machine and should hit .315 again, and a healthy Willy Taveras will score 125 runs atop that lineup. The bullpen is solid. The question marks come from the starting rotation. Jeff Francis is no ace, but he is solid and he's a winner. The rest of the rotation is suspect, though Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have loads of ability.
3. San Diego Padres (88-74): Kevin Towers has this uncanny ability for sniffing out good major league middle relievers (See: Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Kevin Cameron). This year's candidate might be Joe Thatcher. Jake Peavy is one of the NL's two best pitchers, and Greg Maddux is still the smartest pitcher in the league. Randy Wolf should be solid if healthy, and if Mark Prior stays healthy he will be a major boon to that rotation. I don't expect much from Jim Edmonds, but it won't matter because Scott Hairston can hit. Demoting Chase Headley was a questionable decision, but he'll be back sooner rather than later, and his bat is more than ready. Adrian Gonzalez is a star, Kevin Kouzmanoff will be an above-average 3B at the plate, and Khalil Greene will lead all ML shortstops in HR and RBI.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74): Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are coming off career years at the plate, and while neither is likely to repeat their performances, both should come fairly close. Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young are young hitters who will be asked to, and should be able to, shoulder most of the offensive load, but they likely won't be able to outhit Colorado or L.A. Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, and Juan Cruz make up a very good bullpen, regardless of who gets the saves. Brandon Webb is an ace, Dan Haren is a very good number 2, but a lot of the D-Backs fortunes will align with the health of Randy Johnson.
5. San Francisco (61-101): Woof. These guys might not score 600 runs this season. I'm serious. They might as well call Angel Villalona up now. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both have "ace" written all over them, but unless they both spend a ton of time in the batting cage, the Giants aren't going to score enough for these guys to win. Bengie Molina is going to hit clean-up for crying out loud.
2008 N.L. Central Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Chicago Cubs 92-70
2. Cincinnati Reds 89-73
3. Milwaukee Brewers 88-74
4. Houston Astros 85-77
5. St. Louis Cardinals 75-87
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89
1. Chicago Cubs (92-70): Kosuke Fukodome was a solid addition, even if Lou Piniella misuses him. Fukodome should hit 2nd and Soriano should hit 5th, but as long as they keep a consistent lineup they should get off to a better start than last year. Carlos Zambrano is not the elite ace everyone thought he might be, but he is an innings-eating horse and always a potential 20-game winner. Ted Lilly and Rich Hill are solid, Jon Leiber is serviceable as a 4th starter, and Sean Marshall will be nice addition to the rotation if he isn't dealt for Brian Roberts. I don't expect the Ryan Dempster experiment to end well, but the Cubs are deep enough without him. The bullpen is very good with Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and Michael Wurtz. A healthy Kerry Wood makes it even better. Speaking of a Brian Roberts deal, get a load of this:
1. Brian Roberts 2B
2. Kosuke Fukodome RF
3. Derrek Lee 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Alfonso Soriano LF
6. Geovany Soto C
7. Ryan Theriot SS
8. Felix Pie CF
2. Cincinnati Reds (89-73): They'll likely find a way to screw this up. This is one team that is just as likely to be very good as they are to be very bad. Aaron Harang is the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez have both been lights out this spring, but they are young and untested. The bullpen gets a boost with the addition of Francisco Cordero, but his fastball command is still worrisome. Joey Votto should enjoy a fine season if he plays everyday. Corey Patterson could go either way, but if he flops Jay Bruce is waiting to take over, and his bat is ready. Dusty will undoubtedly find a way to get Adam Dunn out of his lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn dealt this year, especially if the Reds fall out of it early.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74): The Brewers aren't sneaking up on anybody this year. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are bonafide studs, and Corey Hart should continue to emerge as one the league's better power/speed threats, but Rickie Weeks may never be the player his potential says he should be, Fielder is unhappy about his contract situation, Bill Hall is changing positions yet again, J.J. Hardy has lost 10 pounds due to an illness (remember Alex Rios, 2006?) and Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, and Manny Parra will always carry injury risks to match their immense talent. Speaking of injury risks, if Eric Gagne gets hurt (which never happens, right?) the Brewers will likely turn to Derrick Turnbow to close games. Yuck.
4. Houston Astros (85-77): This team could lead the N.L. in runs scored in 2008, but the pitching rotation is Roy Oswalt and Pray for Rain. Wandy Rodriguez is the N.L. version of Ervin Santana, Woody Williams is 128 years old, and Shawn Chacon has won a rotation spot. Bleh. The bullpen is solid enough with the addition of Jose Valverde, but they're going to get the Scott Proctor treatment this season.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (75-87): Oh, do these guys stink. Albert Pujols needs Tommy John surgery, and if he goes down this is the worst team baseball. Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement are long-shots to stay healthy, at best. Adam Wainwright is a solid pitcher, but to say there are question marks after him is a bit of an understatement. Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus are another couple of what-ifs, but Ankiel has looked very good this spring. The sooner Colby Rasmus gets to the majors, the better.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (73-91): Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are both good young pitchers, and Matt Morris should have a better year, but this is probably the most boring, faceless team in baseball. Steven Pearce, Andrew McCutchen, and Neil Walker should give fans a reason to head out to PNC in the second half of '08. The Pirates have a bright future, but it won't be this year.
1. Chicago Cubs 92-70
2. Cincinnati Reds 89-73
3. Milwaukee Brewers 88-74
4. Houston Astros 85-77
5. St. Louis Cardinals 75-87
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89
1. Chicago Cubs (92-70): Kosuke Fukodome was a solid addition, even if Lou Piniella misuses him. Fukodome should hit 2nd and Soriano should hit 5th, but as long as they keep a consistent lineup they should get off to a better start than last year. Carlos Zambrano is not the elite ace everyone thought he might be, but he is an innings-eating horse and always a potential 20-game winner. Ted Lilly and Rich Hill are solid, Jon Leiber is serviceable as a 4th starter, and Sean Marshall will be nice addition to the rotation if he isn't dealt for Brian Roberts. I don't expect the Ryan Dempster experiment to end well, but the Cubs are deep enough without him. The bullpen is very good with Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and Michael Wurtz. A healthy Kerry Wood makes it even better. Speaking of a Brian Roberts deal, get a load of this:
1. Brian Roberts 2B
2. Kosuke Fukodome RF
3. Derrek Lee 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Alfonso Soriano LF
6. Geovany Soto C
7. Ryan Theriot SS
8. Felix Pie CF
2. Cincinnati Reds (89-73): They'll likely find a way to screw this up. This is one team that is just as likely to be very good as they are to be very bad. Aaron Harang is the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez have both been lights out this spring, but they are young and untested. The bullpen gets a boost with the addition of Francisco Cordero, but his fastball command is still worrisome. Joey Votto should enjoy a fine season if he plays everyday. Corey Patterson could go either way, but if he flops Jay Bruce is waiting to take over, and his bat is ready. Dusty will undoubtedly find a way to get Adam Dunn out of his lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn dealt this year, especially if the Reds fall out of it early.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74): The Brewers aren't sneaking up on anybody this year. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are bonafide studs, and Corey Hart should continue to emerge as one the league's better power/speed threats, but Rickie Weeks may never be the player his potential says he should be, Fielder is unhappy about his contract situation, Bill Hall is changing positions yet again, J.J. Hardy has lost 10 pounds due to an illness (remember Alex Rios, 2006?) and Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, and Manny Parra will always carry injury risks to match their immense talent. Speaking of injury risks, if Eric Gagne gets hurt (which never happens, right?) the Brewers will likely turn to Derrick Turnbow to close games. Yuck.
4. Houston Astros (85-77): This team could lead the N.L. in runs scored in 2008, but the pitching rotation is Roy Oswalt and Pray for Rain. Wandy Rodriguez is the N.L. version of Ervin Santana, Woody Williams is 128 years old, and Shawn Chacon has won a rotation spot. Bleh. The bullpen is solid enough with the addition of Jose Valverde, but they're going to get the Scott Proctor treatment this season.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (75-87): Oh, do these guys stink. Albert Pujols needs Tommy John surgery, and if he goes down this is the worst team baseball. Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement are long-shots to stay healthy, at best. Adam Wainwright is a solid pitcher, but to say there are question marks after him is a bit of an understatement. Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus are another couple of what-ifs, but Ankiel has looked very good this spring. The sooner Colby Rasmus gets to the majors, the better.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (73-91): Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are both good young pitchers, and Matt Morris should have a better year, but this is probably the most boring, faceless team in baseball. Steven Pearce, Andrew McCutchen, and Neil Walker should give fans a reason to head out to PNC in the second half of '08. The Pirates have a bright future, but it won't be this year.
2008 N.L. East Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on the analysis of statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end; so, I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. New York Mets 95-67
2. Philadelphia Phillies 93-69
3. Atlanta Braves 87-75
4. Washington Nationals 70-92
5. Florida Marlins 68-94
This is not going to be the slam-dunk that a lot of people thought it would be when the Mets aquired Johan Santana. The Mets and Phillies should provide us with a great rivalry for the next several years, but this time the Mets hang on to take the division.
1. New York Mets (95-67): Johan Santana might win 25 games at Shea. A healthy Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez could provide the Mets with one of the National League's best rotations, or it could be a complete disaster after Santana. David Wright and Jose Reyes are two of the very best young hitters in the game, but there are injury concerns everywhere else. The bullpen is solid, especially with a healthy Duaner Sanchez. Once Sanchez regains his form and his role as top set-up man, look for Aaron Heilman to get dealt.
2. Philadelphia Phillies(93-69): The Phightin' Phils added plenty of power this offseason with Pedro Feliz and Geoff Jenkins, but the pitching is still suspect. Cole Hamels is on the verge of becoming a true ace, but after Brett Myers there are a lot of problems. There is almost zero chance Kyle Kendrick pitches as well as he did last year. Both Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon are injury risks, and there isn't much in the bullpen after that. Pedro Feliz's on-base ability is less than inspiring, and Jenkins is pretty much a platoon guy, but Rollins, Howard, and Utley are still elite and will do a lot of damage all on their own.
3. Atlanta Braves (87-75): This is a team that just will not go away. John Smoltz may be beginning to show signs of his age, but he is still a great pitcher. If Mike Hampton can make 25 starts this year at anywhere near the level he's shown in spring training, the Braves are going to hang around this race well into the summer. The Braves bullpen is better than Philly's, and the Braves were 3rd in the National League in runs scored in '07, with Mark Teixeira for only half a season. Mike Gonzalez will provide a big boost to the bullpen when he returns this summer.
4. Washington Nationals (70-92): This should be a tight race for last place. It's The new stadium should benefit Ryan Zimmerman, never good when you release your Opening Day starter a week before the season starts.who will emerge as one the N.L.'s top 3B, as well as Austin Kearns, who should hit 25-30 home runs as Washington's everday right fielder. The bottom line is pitching, though, and the Nationals have none. Zip. The new Opening Day starter is Odalis Perez. Dreadful. Tyler Clippard should get a shot in '08, and we may see Ross Detwiler sometime this season. They're going to have to hit to compete, and that means Lastings Milledge will have to break out completely, Elijah Dukes will have to stay on the field and out of prison, and Nick Johnson will have to stay healthy. Good luck with all of that. Chad Cordero should be dealt by the All-Star break, leaving Jon Rauch to close games.
5. Florida Marlins (68-94): Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin are a year away from making real contributions. Jeremy Hermida can't stay healthy enough to realize his potential (though this may be the year). Jorge Cantu has a starting spot. On the bright side, they still have Hanley Ramirez, Scott Olsen is finally putting it together, and Dan Uggla's batting average can't get worse. They also don't have to worry about any of those pesky fans making a bunch of noise while they're trying to play, since there won't be any there.
1. New York Mets 95-67
2. Philadelphia Phillies 93-69
3. Atlanta Braves 87-75
4. Washington Nationals 70-92
5. Florida Marlins 68-94
This is not going to be the slam-dunk that a lot of people thought it would be when the Mets aquired Johan Santana. The Mets and Phillies should provide us with a great rivalry for the next several years, but this time the Mets hang on to take the division.
1. New York Mets (95-67): Johan Santana might win 25 games at Shea. A healthy Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez could provide the Mets with one of the National League's best rotations, or it could be a complete disaster after Santana. David Wright and Jose Reyes are two of the very best young hitters in the game, but there are injury concerns everywhere else. The bullpen is solid, especially with a healthy Duaner Sanchez. Once Sanchez regains his form and his role as top set-up man, look for Aaron Heilman to get dealt.
2. Philadelphia Phillies(93-69): The Phightin' Phils added plenty of power this offseason with Pedro Feliz and Geoff Jenkins, but the pitching is still suspect. Cole Hamels is on the verge of becoming a true ace, but after Brett Myers there are a lot of problems. There is almost zero chance Kyle Kendrick pitches as well as he did last year. Both Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon are injury risks, and there isn't much in the bullpen after that. Pedro Feliz's on-base ability is less than inspiring, and Jenkins is pretty much a platoon guy, but Rollins, Howard, and Utley are still elite and will do a lot of damage all on their own.
3. Atlanta Braves (87-75): This is a team that just will not go away. John Smoltz may be beginning to show signs of his age, but he is still a great pitcher. If Mike Hampton can make 25 starts this year at anywhere near the level he's shown in spring training, the Braves are going to hang around this race well into the summer. The Braves bullpen is better than Philly's, and the Braves were 3rd in the National League in runs scored in '07, with Mark Teixeira for only half a season. Mike Gonzalez will provide a big boost to the bullpen when he returns this summer.
4. Washington Nationals (70-92): This should be a tight race for last place. It's The new stadium should benefit Ryan Zimmerman, never good when you release your Opening Day starter a week before the season starts.who will emerge as one the N.L.'s top 3B, as well as Austin Kearns, who should hit 25-30 home runs as Washington's everday right fielder. The bottom line is pitching, though, and the Nationals have none. Zip. The new Opening Day starter is Odalis Perez. Dreadful. Tyler Clippard should get a shot in '08, and we may see Ross Detwiler sometime this season. They're going to have to hit to compete, and that means Lastings Milledge will have to break out completely, Elijah Dukes will have to stay on the field and out of prison, and Nick Johnson will have to stay healthy. Good luck with all of that. Chad Cordero should be dealt by the All-Star break, leaving Jon Rauch to close games.
5. Florida Marlins (68-94): Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin are a year away from making real contributions. Jeremy Hermida can't stay healthy enough to realize his potential (though this may be the year). Jorge Cantu has a starting spot. On the bright side, they still have Hanley Ramirez, Scott Olsen is finally putting it together, and Dan Uggla's batting average can't get worse. They also don't have to worry about any of those pesky fans making a bunch of noise while they're trying to play, since there won't be any there.
Spring is Upon Us.
Spring officially starts tomorrow, and it has nothing to do with the vernal equinox. Beginning at 6:05 a.m. EST on Tuesday, March 25, a singular focus takes precedent over pretty much everything else in my life: Baseball. For the next 7 months I will eat, drink, and sleep nothing but baseball. I'm getting up at 5:45 tomorrow morning because the Red Sox and Athletics are opening the season in Japan this year. Mind you, I've already spent loads of time drafting fantasy baseball teams, analyzing statistics and projections, checking spring training boxscores and injury updates, scouring transaction logs, etc, but the real fun starts tomorrow. I have my MLB Extra Innings package ready to go, and between that and TiVo, I won't miss a Yankee game all year.
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
It's supposed to fun, right?
Jonathan, my 9-year old, plays Little League baseball. Last weekend he had tryouts, and I went down there with him to watch. Now, I helped coach Jon's team last year, and I was intending to do the same this season. One of these days, I'd get a team of my own, but I wasn't ready for that this season. Well, as I'm sitting in the bleachers Sunday afternoon, the player agent for the 9-11 year olds comes out and starts asking for a volunteer. Apparently, they had a team in my son's division that was without a manager. I hid from her at first, but when no one else said yes, I just said fuck it and told her I'd do it. So, here's how it's going so far:
Sunday, March 2: I'm asked and agree to manage the Minor A Mariners. It's about 5:00 p.m. and tryouts are over for the day.
Saturday, March 8: The third day of tryouts, but the first time I'd be seeing the 10 and 11-year-old players. Everything is rained out as we experience heavy showers and gale force winds. No big deal, one more day to go.
Sunday, March 9: Last day of tryouts. Rained out again.
Tomorrow night is the draft, and I have no idea who these kids are and what they can do. Now, this isn't that important to me as a coach. I have a lot of knowledge and what I feel is a pretty good plan for teaching these boys. It doesn't matter the skill level of the players I get, because by the end of the season they will all have had a great time playing ball, they'll gain more respect and knowledge about the game, and they will all be better ball-players heading into next year.
It does raise and interesting dilemma, however. The problem lies in the fact that most Little League coaches only do it because (1) they want to guarantee their kids playing time, or (2) winning as a Little League coach makes them feel good about being a shitty player when they were young. This leads to lots and lots of cheating. You have no idea how much cheating goes on in Little League baseball. Managers will round up the fathers of all the best players and have them as coaches, so they can coach the most talented kids. If that doesn't work, they identify some of the best players and have them skip tryouts or play at half-speed so they won't be identified as good players. Like I said, it doesn't much matter to me, except that the first and foremost goal is for the boys to learn and have fun. Losing is not fun, though, and if I get taken advantage of by coaches who only care about their win-loss records, the kids on my team will suffer for it. They may not win at first, and that can be discouraging.
I'm not too worried about it. I definitely feel like I have a lot to teach, and my experience in the restaurant business over all these years has led me to believe that I'm a fairly effective teacher. No matter what, my main goal is to provide a fun and structured environment for the kids to learn how to play and learn to really love the game. I'm hoping to be the kind of coach most Little League players never encounter. We'll see how it goes. My first practice is next Saturday.
**Update: I'm no longer coaching this team, and Jonathan is no longer playing in this league. Long story; maybe I'll get into it later, but we're looking for a new place for the boy to play.
Sunday, March 2: I'm asked and agree to manage the Minor A Mariners. It's about 5:00 p.m. and tryouts are over for the day.
Saturday, March 8: The third day of tryouts, but the first time I'd be seeing the 10 and 11-year-old players. Everything is rained out as we experience heavy showers and gale force winds. No big deal, one more day to go.
Sunday, March 9: Last day of tryouts. Rained out again.
Tomorrow night is the draft, and I have no idea who these kids are and what they can do. Now, this isn't that important to me as a coach. I have a lot of knowledge and what I feel is a pretty good plan for teaching these boys. It doesn't matter the skill level of the players I get, because by the end of the season they will all have had a great time playing ball, they'll gain more respect and knowledge about the game, and they will all be better ball-players heading into next year.
It does raise and interesting dilemma, however. The problem lies in the fact that most Little League coaches only do it because (1) they want to guarantee their kids playing time, or (2) winning as a Little League coach makes them feel good about being a shitty player when they were young. This leads to lots and lots of cheating. You have no idea how much cheating goes on in Little League baseball. Managers will round up the fathers of all the best players and have them as coaches, so they can coach the most talented kids. If that doesn't work, they identify some of the best players and have them skip tryouts or play at half-speed so they won't be identified as good players. Like I said, it doesn't much matter to me, except that the first and foremost goal is for the boys to learn and have fun. Losing is not fun, though, and if I get taken advantage of by coaches who only care about their win-loss records, the kids on my team will suffer for it. They may not win at first, and that can be discouraging.
I'm not too worried about it. I definitely feel like I have a lot to teach, and my experience in the restaurant business over all these years has led me to believe that I'm a fairly effective teacher. No matter what, my main goal is to provide a fun and structured environment for the kids to learn how to play and learn to really love the game. I'm hoping to be the kind of coach most Little League players never encounter. We'll see how it goes. My first practice is next Saturday.
**Update: I'm no longer coaching this team, and Jonathan is no longer playing in this league. Long story; maybe I'll get into it later, but we're looking for a new place for the boy to play.
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