Yes, I've done something like this before. Yes, I'm aware that there's virtually no chance that this is read by the people that need to read it. Every now and then, though, I just need to get some shit off my chest. I've been in this business for 13 years, and even though I'm working hard to get out, I will always have a soft spot for the restaurant business. I'm not getting out because it's not good money, and I don't want out because I hate the business itself. I'm getting out because I'm sick of dealing with the largely ignorant public as a whole. Now, I know I had a choice here. I chose to work at a well-known chain restaurant, as opposed to a 4-star local place, because I know that in southeastern Virginia, your best bet to make money is quantity over quality, because such quality is just too few and far between here.
First, this isn't going to focus on tipping, or the lack thereof. I know some people are just plain cheap. I know I'm going to get shitty tips that I do not deserve. This is no longer a big deal to me, because I'm very good at what I do, and I'll make my money in the end. It's all of the other dumb shit you do that really gets to me.
Let's start at the front door. You walk into a busy restaurant: let's say, just as an example, The Cheesecake Factory. You get to the front desk and they tell you it will be a 45-60 minute wait. At this point, you have a choice: (a)you can choose to wait up to an hour just to get a table, or (b)you can carry your ass somewhere else. Most of you, for one inexplicable reason or another, will choose to wait. That's fine by me, because the more people we pack into the restaurant, the more money I'm going to make. Since I can count on about 25% of you tipping me 10% or less, and to round up all the cattle I can. Now, remember, they told you that you might wait 60 minutes for a table. When your pager goes off 55 minutes later, don't come to my table with a fucking attitude about how long you waited. Sure, most restaurants don't know how to quote a wait. We do. Get over it. You made that bed when you took the pager.
Now that you have a table and you're settled in, it's time for the dining experience to begin. I will be at your table in one minute or less, so please make sure you're ready. I don't mean that you should know what you want to eat, but you should be ready to give me your attention and the respect I deserve as the person who is now in charge of orchestrating your dining experience for the remainder of the evening. Start by hanging up your damn phone. If the conversation is that important, chances are you shouldn't be out eating. Being on the phone is a sure-fire way to piss me off right from the get go, and I'm going to be less inclined to go out of way to provide you with an over-the-top fantastic dining experience. You're already one strike on the hole.
Next, when I speak to you, look me in the eye. Don't stare at the table when you talk. Don't mumble. If you can't look at me and speak clearly, don't get mad at me when your order comes out wrong. This is another strike against you. This doesn't mean I'm going to intentionally ruin your experience. Again, I'm just not going out of way to make it special for you. If you do this because you have some sort of social anxiety disorder, then Pizza Hut let's you order online.
I am a server, but I am not not your servant. Do not talk down to me. I wait tables to pay my bills while I'm in school. I'm majoring in aerospace engineering and mathematics, with a minor in physics, and that's because I don't want to be a doctor or a lawyer or any number of other jobs I'm more than capable of doing. My IQ is high enough for me to join Mensa. There's a 90-95% chance that I'm a hell of a lot smarter than you, so don't talk down to me just because you're paying. The point is, you have no idea why your server has chosen to wait tables, and you are no better than they are. Treat them with the same respect that you think you deserve.
On that note, I introduce myself for a reason. My name is David. Use it. Don't call me "excuse me: and for Christ's sake don't call me "sir".
Some other things you should never, ever do upon sitting down and being greeted by your server:
1. DO NOT pull out your money clip and place it on the table or start counting it in front of me. At this point, I know you have no intention of leaving a good tip, and the odds are good you won't tip me at all. I've been in this business a long time, and that is a sure sign that you are an intentionally shitty tipper. You know the saying 'You get what you pay for?' You might not want to let me know what you intend to pay for right off hand, because that's exactly what I'll give you. You just slipped to the very bottom of my priority list, and all of my other guests will get what they need first.
2. DO NOT bring those stupid powder packets that you can add to your water to make lemonade or fruit punch. If you don't want plain water, and you don't want to pay for a drink, please don't come to a restaurant like the Cheesecake Factory. While we're certainly not 5-star, we aren't Denny's either. Have some class. Just like Money Clip Guy, you've now told me I cannot expect to make much money here, and you've slipped on the priority list.
3. DO NOT interrupt me. EVER. When I come over to introduce myself and I ask how you are or some other such greeting, don't stop me in the middle to order a sweet tea. This goes back to the respect issue, and treating people the way you like to be treated. I probably have some things I need to tell you because the restaurant makes me, and there are some other things I'm going to add in because my job is to give you the best possible experience I can. Don't interrupt or I won't care if you have a good time or not, and you just became the last asshole in my section to get a drink refill.
Now that the pleasantries are out of the way, it's time to get down to business. Hopefully you've avoided all of the above no-nos, but you are not in the clear yet. I've brought your drinks and you've had a few minutes to look at the menu. I've given a couple of quick suggestions. If you still need a few minutes to decide, great. I'll be happy to make some more suggestions, tell you about certain dishes, and help you narrow down a few choices. That's part of what I do to make sure you get exactly what you want. If you still need to look, that's fine too, but I'm going to walk away and tend to the other 3 (at least) parties of guests that I'm taking care of. DO NOT tell me that you're ready to order and then spend 5 more minutes looking while I stand table-side waiting. This will piss me off, and it will ensure that you now get more than enough time to decide, because I will walk away without notice for at least 5 more minutes, and I will blatantly ignore your first attempt to get my attention.
You aren't quite sure what to order, so you have a few questions. Great! I spent a lot of time learning everything I could about the 200 items on our menu so that I could adequately answer your questions. Here's the thing. You don't know shit about the food except what the menu says. I do know basically everything. If I tell you about a dish, and it doesn't sound exactly like something you want. DON'T FUCKING ORDER IT!!!! You are not at Golden Corral. You cannot just try something and send it back if you don't like it. If you want to modify a dish and I tell you it won't be good that way, take my word for it. We've already established that I'm smarter than you. If I tell you about a dish and you hesitate for even a second, I'm going to drive home just how much you WILL NOT like that dish, and if you choose to order it anyway, and it turns out that I was right about you hating it, oh well. You had more than enough information at hand to make a good choice, and you chose poorly. No immortality for you. If the kitchen screws something up, we'll pay for it. If you don't like something that I specifically told you that you wouldn't like? Well, you know what they say in Russia*. I'll box it up for you since you paid for it, and maybe the dog will eat it.
Back to the subject of getting my attention. We're a busy restaurant. I personally take care of as many as 20-30 people at one time. There will be occasions when I have many things to do at once, and you may need to get my attention. I have no problem with this, except there are right and wrong ways to go about it. When I'm on the floor, I make eye contact with each one of my guests before I go to the kitchen or the bar or wherever I have to go. If you need something, and I'm headed in the other direction, a small gesture to let me know is acceptable. I'm happy to get you what you need. Most people by now are aware that snapping your fingers might get a drink "accidentally" spilled on you, but some people don't seem to be aware that it is rude to yell at me when I'm talking to another guest at another table. Are you fucking kidding me? I didn't interrupt you when you were on your cell phone, and I didn't intentionally give you unsweet tea when you ordered sweet tea in the middle of my greeting to you, so who the hell are you to yell at me when I'm clearly speaking to someone else?
There are several other things you should and should not do during the meal:
1. If you ordered an appetizer for the table, please lend a hand when we bring it out and clear a space in the middle of the fucking table. Don't look at us like we have three heads when we stand there with the plate and nowhere to put it on the table.
2. DO NOT let your kid make a mess all over the table and floor. It's ridiculous people. Bring a toy or a bottle or whatever, but don't let the little shit throw Cheerios all over the floor. On top of being tacky, you aren't going to tip me any extra to clean up the extra mess. There is a reason The Cheesecake Factory doesn't have a kid's menu.
3. If you're thirsty, fine, but if you think I'm refilling your Diet Coke 11 times before your dinner gets to the table, you're nuts.
Okay, so I lied. It's time to talk about money. Contrary to popular belief, I know that the vast majority of the guests I take care of know that the restaurant pays me $2.13 an hour, and that I will never get a raise in my hourly pay. That means I make every dime from the guests I take care of. When you go out to eat at an upscale casual restaurant like The Cheesecake Factory, you are paying for more than food. Your check covers the food, but the tip is for the service you received. Do you get new tires for your car without paying for labor? No. By the same token, you can't get food without paying for the service, either, unless you go to McDonald's. When you don't tip, or leave me 10% of your bill or less, you've in essence stolen from me. There is never, ever any excuse to leave a tip that is less than 10% of your bill. If your service was that bad, a manager should have known about long before you got your check. I have never worked with anyone who gave service that deserved a $5 tip on a $150 check, and yet I see it all the time.
1. If your food came out cooked wrong, it's not your server's fault. Don't take it out on them.
2. If you don't like the dish, it's not your server's fault, ESPECIALLY if they told you before you ordered it that you wouldn't like it.
3. If you had a bad day and you're in a shitty mood, it's not your server's fault. They have just as many bad days as you, if not more, and they don't take it out on you.
4. If you don't have a lot money, it's not your server's fault. If you can't afford to tip, you can't afford to eat out. Order take out or cook at home.
I don't think I'm going to spend much more time talking about your awful tipping habits, but I hope those of you who have never worked in the food service industry understand just how far a little respect goes, because karma will get you in the end.
*Toughkie Shitskie........I don't know what it means either, but my father loved saying it to me when I was a kid.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Happy Birthday to Me
I just can't seem to get it right today (today)
I just can't seem to get it right today (today)
I just can't seem to get it right today
I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
It's nearly been a year since he's been gone
we still sing his goodbye songs
and she knows she should move on
but she just can't let him go
no, she just can't let him go
I'm sorry if I made you wanna cry
I'm sorry if I made you wanna cry
You should know I never meant to hide
I just hate bringin you down
oh, I just hate bringin you down
I just can't seem to get it right today
I just can't seem to get it right today
I just can't seem to get it right today
I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
And I dropped my paintbrush in the dirt
I'm still numb by just how much I hurt
I cut my hand, wait for it to work
but I just couldn't bring him back
no, I just couldn't bring him back
I just can't seem to get it right today
Oh, I just can't seem to get it right today
I just can't seem to get it right today
I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
Oh lord I said I guess I'm gonna give up
Oh lord I said I guess I'm gonna give up
I just can't seem to get it right today (today)
I just can't seem to get it right today
I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
It's nearly been a year since he's been gone
we still sing his goodbye songs
and she knows she should move on
but she just can't let him go
no, she just can't let him go
I'm sorry if I made you wanna cry
I'm sorry if I made you wanna cry
You should know I never meant to hide
I just hate bringin you down
oh, I just hate bringin you down
I just can't seem to get it right today
I just can't seem to get it right today
I just can't seem to get it right today
I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
And I dropped my paintbrush in the dirt
I'm still numb by just how much I hurt
I cut my hand, wait for it to work
but I just couldn't bring him back
no, I just couldn't bring him back
I just can't seem to get it right today
Oh, I just can't seem to get it right today
I just can't seem to get it right today
I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
oh, I guess I'm gonna give up
Oh lord I said I guess I'm gonna give up
Oh lord I said I guess I'm gonna give up
Monday, March 24, 2008
2008 A.L. East Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. New York Yankees 98-64
2. Boston Red Sox 95-67
3. Tampa Bay Rays 82-80
4. Toronto Blue Jays 80-82
5. Baltimore Orioles 59-103
Like it or not, the two best teams in baseball still reside in New York and Boston, and despite what most want to believe, the Yankees and Red Sox will both coast into the playoffs once again.
1. New York Yankees (98-64): Am I a Yankees fan? Yes. Does that have something to do with me picking them to finish first in the A.L. East? Probably, but the Yankees showed everyone last year in nearly erasing a 14-game deficit to catch the eventual World Champs that when they're healthy no one is better. That being said, health is still the major concern in New York. Andy Pettitte's back problems seem to be minor right now, but at 35 they're a bigger concern than Josh Beckett's back problems in Boston. Chien-Ming Wang may not be the playoff ace the Yankees need, but he's a very solid number two, having won 19 games each of the last two years. With the emergence of Phil Hughes, who is looking more and more like a #1, and Ian Kennedy, who is already a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, there is far less concern with the Yankee staff heading into '08 than in '07. We all know the Yankees can hit, and the Yankees are deep enough that Joe Girardi should be able to give Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon enough rest to keep them healthy. With Joba Chamberlain in the Yankee bullpen for at least half the season, the Yankees will see improvement there, as well. The Yankees also have an embarrassment of riches in the system in the way of young arms, so acquiring help through the trade market won't be much of a problem should the need arise.
2. Boston Red Sox (95-67): Josh Beckett's back spasms are only a minor concern right now, but with Curt Schilling on the shelf already, they can ill-afford to lose Beckett. Clay Buchholz will likely be on a short leash as far as his innings are concerned. Daisuke Matsuzaka still has to prove he can pitch every 5th day for an entire season. The bullpen is still one of baseball's best. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz will have their typical huge seasons, Julio Lugo can't possibly be that bad again, and Jacoby Ellsbury is an upgrade in center over Coco Crisp.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80): Baseball is losing it's mind. The Rays and the Royals finishing above .500. God help us. The truth is, this team is deeper in young talent than anyone in the majors, and they're on the verge of making a run for the playoffs. It won't happen in '08, but it's not far away. They mishandled the Evan Longoria situation, but it won't be long until he's the everyday 3B. David Price, Wade Davis, and Jake McGee aren't far away, either. Carlos Pena will probably see a dip in batting average, but there's no reason to believe he can't hit 35 HR.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82): The Blue Jays are the trendy pick to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, but I just don't see it. Scott Rolen just can't hit anymore, and David Eckstein never could. They have a couple of good young arms in the rotation and bullpen, but A.J. Burnett's chances of making 30 starts are pretty slim considering it's a feat he's managed twice since 1999. Alex Rios is a star, and bounce-back years from Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay would help, but I still see a 4th place, sub-.500 team.
5.Baltimore Orioles (59-103): I don't even know what to say.
1. New York Yankees 98-64
2. Boston Red Sox 95-67
3. Tampa Bay Rays 82-80
4. Toronto Blue Jays 80-82
5. Baltimore Orioles 59-103
Like it or not, the two best teams in baseball still reside in New York and Boston, and despite what most want to believe, the Yankees and Red Sox will both coast into the playoffs once again.
1. New York Yankees (98-64): Am I a Yankees fan? Yes. Does that have something to do with me picking them to finish first in the A.L. East? Probably, but the Yankees showed everyone last year in nearly erasing a 14-game deficit to catch the eventual World Champs that when they're healthy no one is better. That being said, health is still the major concern in New York. Andy Pettitte's back problems seem to be minor right now, but at 35 they're a bigger concern than Josh Beckett's back problems in Boston. Chien-Ming Wang may not be the playoff ace the Yankees need, but he's a very solid number two, having won 19 games each of the last two years. With the emergence of Phil Hughes, who is looking more and more like a #1, and Ian Kennedy, who is already a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, there is far less concern with the Yankee staff heading into '08 than in '07. We all know the Yankees can hit, and the Yankees are deep enough that Joe Girardi should be able to give Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon enough rest to keep them healthy. With Joba Chamberlain in the Yankee bullpen for at least half the season, the Yankees will see improvement there, as well. The Yankees also have an embarrassment of riches in the system in the way of young arms, so acquiring help through the trade market won't be much of a problem should the need arise.
2. Boston Red Sox (95-67): Josh Beckett's back spasms are only a minor concern right now, but with Curt Schilling on the shelf already, they can ill-afford to lose Beckett. Clay Buchholz will likely be on a short leash as far as his innings are concerned. Daisuke Matsuzaka still has to prove he can pitch every 5th day for an entire season. The bullpen is still one of baseball's best. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz will have their typical huge seasons, Julio Lugo can't possibly be that bad again, and Jacoby Ellsbury is an upgrade in center over Coco Crisp.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80): Baseball is losing it's mind. The Rays and the Royals finishing above .500. God help us. The truth is, this team is deeper in young talent than anyone in the majors, and they're on the verge of making a run for the playoffs. It won't happen in '08, but it's not far away. They mishandled the Evan Longoria situation, but it won't be long until he's the everyday 3B. David Price, Wade Davis, and Jake McGee aren't far away, either. Carlos Pena will probably see a dip in batting average, but there's no reason to believe he can't hit 35 HR.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82): The Blue Jays are the trendy pick to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, but I just don't see it. Scott Rolen just can't hit anymore, and David Eckstein never could. They have a couple of good young arms in the rotation and bullpen, but A.J. Burnett's chances of making 30 starts are pretty slim considering it's a feat he's managed twice since 1999. Alex Rios is a star, and bounce-back years from Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay would help, but I still see a 4th place, sub-.500 team.
5.Baltimore Orioles (59-103): I don't even know what to say.
2008 A.L. Central Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Detroit Tigers 92-70
3. Minnesota Twins 83-79
4. Kansas City Royals 82-80
5. Chicago White Sox 78-84
1. Cleveland Indians (94-68): Fausto Carmona is for real, and C.C Sabathia is a horse. They'll need to have a better year from Travis Hafner, but they have more than enough bats to win this division, and they are hungry.
2. Detroit Tigers (92-70): The addition of Miguel Cabrera gives the Tigers one of the two or three best offenses in baseball. The addition of Dontrelle Willis, however, does nothing positive. After Justin Verlander, the Tiger rotation is below average, with a chance to be downright abysmal. Jeremy Bonderman has a career ERA over 5, Kenny Rogers is getting old, and the bullpen is in shambles with Zumaya and Rodney unable to stay on the field. This team might score 1000 runs, though, and that will get you pretty far; just not into the playoffs.
3. Minnesota Twins (83-79): There is life after Johan Santana. Francisco Liriano looks great, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to be solid, and Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young will provide anough O to keep Minnesota above the .500 mark.
4. Kansas City Royals (82-80): Yes, that's right. A winning record. It's a new day in Kansas City. Gil Meche is proving to be worth at least most of the money he was given, Jose Guillen is a solid addition to the middle of the order, and Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are primed for solid seasons.
5. Chicago White Sox (78-84): The Sox can outhit KC and Minnesota, and they can probably outpitch Detroit, but it won't be enough to keep them out of last. Nick Swisher should have a nice year, Josh Fields needs to be in the lineup everyday, and Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye can still hit. The rotation is less than stellar, though the bullpen should be good. The Sox could finish as high as 3rd, but I'm not really buying it.
1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Detroit Tigers 92-70
3. Minnesota Twins 83-79
4. Kansas City Royals 82-80
5. Chicago White Sox 78-84
1. Cleveland Indians (94-68): Fausto Carmona is for real, and C.C Sabathia is a horse. They'll need to have a better year from Travis Hafner, but they have more than enough bats to win this division, and they are hungry.
2. Detroit Tigers (92-70): The addition of Miguel Cabrera gives the Tigers one of the two or three best offenses in baseball. The addition of Dontrelle Willis, however, does nothing positive. After Justin Verlander, the Tiger rotation is below average, with a chance to be downright abysmal. Jeremy Bonderman has a career ERA over 5, Kenny Rogers is getting old, and the bullpen is in shambles with Zumaya and Rodney unable to stay on the field. This team might score 1000 runs, though, and that will get you pretty far; just not into the playoffs.
3. Minnesota Twins (83-79): There is life after Johan Santana. Francisco Liriano looks great, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to be solid, and Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young will provide anough O to keep Minnesota above the .500 mark.
4. Kansas City Royals (82-80): Yes, that's right. A winning record. It's a new day in Kansas City. Gil Meche is proving to be worth at least most of the money he was given, Jose Guillen is a solid addition to the middle of the order, and Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are primed for solid seasons.
5. Chicago White Sox (78-84): The Sox can outhit KC and Minnesota, and they can probably outpitch Detroit, but it won't be enough to keep them out of last. Nick Swisher should have a nice year, Josh Fields needs to be in the lineup everyday, and Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye can still hit. The rotation is less than stellar, though the bullpen should be good. The Sox could finish as high as 3rd, but I'm not really buying it.
2008 A.L. West Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Seattle Mariners 90-72
2. Los Angeles Angels 90-72
3. Texas Rangers 78-84
4. Oakland Athletics 69-93
A toss-up here. I think the Angels have real injury concerns here, both in the outfield and in the rotation
1. Seattle Mariners (90-72): The Mariners are banking that Erik Bedard and an overpaid Carlos Silva can pitch them to a division title. That might very well happen if Felix Hernandez becomes the ace he's projected to be. The Mariners bullpen is one of baseball's strongest, led by J.J. Putz who is one of the top 2 or 3 closers in the league. The Mariner's lineup doesn't instill fear in anyone, but they might be just good enough. Could a mid-season trade for Adam Dunn put them over the top?
2. Los Angeles Angels (90-72): Lackey and Escobar are both going to begin the year on the DL. Gary Matthews, Jr. is banged up, Vladimir Guerrero is getting old fast, and Torii Hunter was not the thunder that L.A. was looking for to help Vlad. This team is in danger of missing the playoffs in 2008.
3. Texas Rangers (78-84): As usual, the Rangers have no pitching whatsoever. If Milton Bradley stays on the field, however, they can hit. With Hank Blalock healthy and ready for a good year and Josh Hamilton now manning centerfield, the Rangers have more than enough firepower to stay out of the cellar.
4. Oakland (69-93): Hey, Bobby Crosby isn't hurt yet. If he and Rich Harden stay healthy and are productive, they'll likely get dealt, as will Joe Blanton. This team is a candidate to lose 100 games in '08.
1. Seattle Mariners 90-72
2. Los Angeles Angels 90-72
3. Texas Rangers 78-84
4. Oakland Athletics 69-93
A toss-up here. I think the Angels have real injury concerns here, both in the outfield and in the rotation
1. Seattle Mariners (90-72): The Mariners are banking that Erik Bedard and an overpaid Carlos Silva can pitch them to a division title. That might very well happen if Felix Hernandez becomes the ace he's projected to be. The Mariners bullpen is one of baseball's strongest, led by J.J. Putz who is one of the top 2 or 3 closers in the league. The Mariner's lineup doesn't instill fear in anyone, but they might be just good enough. Could a mid-season trade for Adam Dunn put them over the top?
2. Los Angeles Angels (90-72): Lackey and Escobar are both going to begin the year on the DL. Gary Matthews, Jr. is banged up, Vladimir Guerrero is getting old fast, and Torii Hunter was not the thunder that L.A. was looking for to help Vlad. This team is in danger of missing the playoffs in 2008.
3. Texas Rangers (78-84): As usual, the Rangers have no pitching whatsoever. If Milton Bradley stays on the field, however, they can hit. With Hank Blalock healthy and ready for a good year and Josh Hamilton now manning centerfield, the Rangers have more than enough firepower to stay out of the cellar.
4. Oakland (69-93): Hey, Bobby Crosby isn't hurt yet. If he and Rich Harden stay healthy and are productive, they'll likely get dealt, as will Joe Blanton. This team is a candidate to lose 100 games in '08.
2008 N.L. West Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
2. Colorado Rockies 90-72
3. San Diego Padres 88-74
4. Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
5. San Francisco 61-101
Once again the N.L. West will be a 4-team slugfest and Baseball's best division.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71): Joe Torre is known as a guy whose best attribute is the ability to handle the egos of overpaid veteran superstars. The Dodgers are a team that has been plagued by in-fighting between it's veterans and up-and-coming stars. The Dodgers are also a team that is going to rely heavily on it's young stars in 2008. Matt Kemp is an All-Star in the making, and Andre Ethier is an above-average Major League outfielder, and is a better option for the Dodgers than Juan Pierre, who perennially leads the league in outs. Bounce-back years from Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones make the Dodgers an offensive powerhouse. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe will continue to post solid numbers for L.A., Chad Billingsley is an ace, Hiroki Kuroda may be the league's best 4th starter, and the Clayton Kershaw era will begin soon. Takashi Saito is an elite closer, and Johnathan Broxton is an elite closer-in-waiting. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid, assuming Joe Torre doesn't throw them until their arms fall off.
2. Colorado Rockies (90-72): Like the Milwaukee Brewers, the Rockies aren't sneaking up anyone this year. Matt Holliday is one of the league's best hitters, and Brad Hawpe's improvement against left-handed pitching provides Colorado with one the National League's top one-two punches. Garrett Atkins continues to be underrated, Troy Tulowitzki will enjoy a fine season at SS, Todd Helton remains an on-base machine and should hit .315 again, and a healthy Willy Taveras will score 125 runs atop that lineup. The bullpen is solid. The question marks come from the starting rotation. Jeff Francis is no ace, but he is solid and he's a winner. The rest of the rotation is suspect, though Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have loads of ability.
3. San Diego Padres (88-74): Kevin Towers has this uncanny ability for sniffing out good major league middle relievers (See: Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Kevin Cameron). This year's candidate might be Joe Thatcher. Jake Peavy is one of the NL's two best pitchers, and Greg Maddux is still the smartest pitcher in the league. Randy Wolf should be solid if healthy, and if Mark Prior stays healthy he will be a major boon to that rotation. I don't expect much from Jim Edmonds, but it won't matter because Scott Hairston can hit. Demoting Chase Headley was a questionable decision, but he'll be back sooner rather than later, and his bat is more than ready. Adrian Gonzalez is a star, Kevin Kouzmanoff will be an above-average 3B at the plate, and Khalil Greene will lead all ML shortstops in HR and RBI.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74): Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are coming off career years at the plate, and while neither is likely to repeat their performances, both should come fairly close. Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young are young hitters who will be asked to, and should be able to, shoulder most of the offensive load, but they likely won't be able to outhit Colorado or L.A. Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, and Juan Cruz make up a very good bullpen, regardless of who gets the saves. Brandon Webb is an ace, Dan Haren is a very good number 2, but a lot of the D-Backs fortunes will align with the health of Randy Johnson.
5. San Francisco (61-101): Woof. These guys might not score 600 runs this season. I'm serious. They might as well call Angel Villalona up now. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both have "ace" written all over them, but unless they both spend a ton of time in the batting cage, the Giants aren't going to score enough for these guys to win. Bengie Molina is going to hit clean-up for crying out loud.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
2. Colorado Rockies 90-72
3. San Diego Padres 88-74
4. Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
5. San Francisco 61-101
Once again the N.L. West will be a 4-team slugfest and Baseball's best division.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71): Joe Torre is known as a guy whose best attribute is the ability to handle the egos of overpaid veteran superstars. The Dodgers are a team that has been plagued by in-fighting between it's veterans and up-and-coming stars. The Dodgers are also a team that is going to rely heavily on it's young stars in 2008. Matt Kemp is an All-Star in the making, and Andre Ethier is an above-average Major League outfielder, and is a better option for the Dodgers than Juan Pierre, who perennially leads the league in outs. Bounce-back years from Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones make the Dodgers an offensive powerhouse. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe will continue to post solid numbers for L.A., Chad Billingsley is an ace, Hiroki Kuroda may be the league's best 4th starter, and the Clayton Kershaw era will begin soon. Takashi Saito is an elite closer, and Johnathan Broxton is an elite closer-in-waiting. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid, assuming Joe Torre doesn't throw them until their arms fall off.
2. Colorado Rockies (90-72): Like the Milwaukee Brewers, the Rockies aren't sneaking up anyone this year. Matt Holliday is one of the league's best hitters, and Brad Hawpe's improvement against left-handed pitching provides Colorado with one the National League's top one-two punches. Garrett Atkins continues to be underrated, Troy Tulowitzki will enjoy a fine season at SS, Todd Helton remains an on-base machine and should hit .315 again, and a healthy Willy Taveras will score 125 runs atop that lineup. The bullpen is solid. The question marks come from the starting rotation. Jeff Francis is no ace, but he is solid and he's a winner. The rest of the rotation is suspect, though Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have loads of ability.
3. San Diego Padres (88-74): Kevin Towers has this uncanny ability for sniffing out good major league middle relievers (See: Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Kevin Cameron). This year's candidate might be Joe Thatcher. Jake Peavy is one of the NL's two best pitchers, and Greg Maddux is still the smartest pitcher in the league. Randy Wolf should be solid if healthy, and if Mark Prior stays healthy he will be a major boon to that rotation. I don't expect much from Jim Edmonds, but it won't matter because Scott Hairston can hit. Demoting Chase Headley was a questionable decision, but he'll be back sooner rather than later, and his bat is more than ready. Adrian Gonzalez is a star, Kevin Kouzmanoff will be an above-average 3B at the plate, and Khalil Greene will lead all ML shortstops in HR and RBI.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74): Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are coming off career years at the plate, and while neither is likely to repeat their performances, both should come fairly close. Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young are young hitters who will be asked to, and should be able to, shoulder most of the offensive load, but they likely won't be able to outhit Colorado or L.A. Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, and Juan Cruz make up a very good bullpen, regardless of who gets the saves. Brandon Webb is an ace, Dan Haren is a very good number 2, but a lot of the D-Backs fortunes will align with the health of Randy Johnson.
5. San Francisco (61-101): Woof. These guys might not score 600 runs this season. I'm serious. They might as well call Angel Villalona up now. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both have "ace" written all over them, but unless they both spend a ton of time in the batting cage, the Giants aren't going to score enough for these guys to win. Bengie Molina is going to hit clean-up for crying out loud.
2008 N.L. Central Projections
One of every baseball nerd's favorite pastimes is making projections and predictions based on statistics. I do it every year, but I never remember where I've put it by season's end, so I'm going to do it here, and we'll see how close I come.
1. Chicago Cubs 92-70
2. Cincinnati Reds 89-73
3. Milwaukee Brewers 88-74
4. Houston Astros 85-77
5. St. Louis Cardinals 75-87
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89
1. Chicago Cubs (92-70): Kosuke Fukodome was a solid addition, even if Lou Piniella misuses him. Fukodome should hit 2nd and Soriano should hit 5th, but as long as they keep a consistent lineup they should get off to a better start than last year. Carlos Zambrano is not the elite ace everyone thought he might be, but he is an innings-eating horse and always a potential 20-game winner. Ted Lilly and Rich Hill are solid, Jon Leiber is serviceable as a 4th starter, and Sean Marshall will be nice addition to the rotation if he isn't dealt for Brian Roberts. I don't expect the Ryan Dempster experiment to end well, but the Cubs are deep enough without him. The bullpen is very good with Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and Michael Wurtz. A healthy Kerry Wood makes it even better. Speaking of a Brian Roberts deal, get a load of this:
1. Brian Roberts 2B
2. Kosuke Fukodome RF
3. Derrek Lee 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Alfonso Soriano LF
6. Geovany Soto C
7. Ryan Theriot SS
8. Felix Pie CF
2. Cincinnati Reds (89-73): They'll likely find a way to screw this up. This is one team that is just as likely to be very good as they are to be very bad. Aaron Harang is the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez have both been lights out this spring, but they are young and untested. The bullpen gets a boost with the addition of Francisco Cordero, but his fastball command is still worrisome. Joey Votto should enjoy a fine season if he plays everyday. Corey Patterson could go either way, but if he flops Jay Bruce is waiting to take over, and his bat is ready. Dusty will undoubtedly find a way to get Adam Dunn out of his lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn dealt this year, especially if the Reds fall out of it early.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74): The Brewers aren't sneaking up on anybody this year. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are bonafide studs, and Corey Hart should continue to emerge as one the league's better power/speed threats, but Rickie Weeks may never be the player his potential says he should be, Fielder is unhappy about his contract situation, Bill Hall is changing positions yet again, J.J. Hardy has lost 10 pounds due to an illness (remember Alex Rios, 2006?) and Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, and Manny Parra will always carry injury risks to match their immense talent. Speaking of injury risks, if Eric Gagne gets hurt (which never happens, right?) the Brewers will likely turn to Derrick Turnbow to close games. Yuck.
4. Houston Astros (85-77): This team could lead the N.L. in runs scored in 2008, but the pitching rotation is Roy Oswalt and Pray for Rain. Wandy Rodriguez is the N.L. version of Ervin Santana, Woody Williams is 128 years old, and Shawn Chacon has won a rotation spot. Bleh. The bullpen is solid enough with the addition of Jose Valverde, but they're going to get the Scott Proctor treatment this season.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (75-87): Oh, do these guys stink. Albert Pujols needs Tommy John surgery, and if he goes down this is the worst team baseball. Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement are long-shots to stay healthy, at best. Adam Wainwright is a solid pitcher, but to say there are question marks after him is a bit of an understatement. Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus are another couple of what-ifs, but Ankiel has looked very good this spring. The sooner Colby Rasmus gets to the majors, the better.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (73-91): Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are both good young pitchers, and Matt Morris should have a better year, but this is probably the most boring, faceless team in baseball. Steven Pearce, Andrew McCutchen, and Neil Walker should give fans a reason to head out to PNC in the second half of '08. The Pirates have a bright future, but it won't be this year.
1. Chicago Cubs 92-70
2. Cincinnati Reds 89-73
3. Milwaukee Brewers 88-74
4. Houston Astros 85-77
5. St. Louis Cardinals 75-87
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89
1. Chicago Cubs (92-70): Kosuke Fukodome was a solid addition, even if Lou Piniella misuses him. Fukodome should hit 2nd and Soriano should hit 5th, but as long as they keep a consistent lineup they should get off to a better start than last year. Carlos Zambrano is not the elite ace everyone thought he might be, but he is an innings-eating horse and always a potential 20-game winner. Ted Lilly and Rich Hill are solid, Jon Leiber is serviceable as a 4th starter, and Sean Marshall will be nice addition to the rotation if he isn't dealt for Brian Roberts. I don't expect the Ryan Dempster experiment to end well, but the Cubs are deep enough without him. The bullpen is very good with Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and Michael Wurtz. A healthy Kerry Wood makes it even better. Speaking of a Brian Roberts deal, get a load of this:
1. Brian Roberts 2B
2. Kosuke Fukodome RF
3. Derrek Lee 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Alfonso Soriano LF
6. Geovany Soto C
7. Ryan Theriot SS
8. Felix Pie CF
2. Cincinnati Reds (89-73): They'll likely find a way to screw this up. This is one team that is just as likely to be very good as they are to be very bad. Aaron Harang is the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez have both been lights out this spring, but they are young and untested. The bullpen gets a boost with the addition of Francisco Cordero, but his fastball command is still worrisome. Joey Votto should enjoy a fine season if he plays everyday. Corey Patterson could go either way, but if he flops Jay Bruce is waiting to take over, and his bat is ready. Dusty will undoubtedly find a way to get Adam Dunn out of his lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn dealt this year, especially if the Reds fall out of it early.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74): The Brewers aren't sneaking up on anybody this year. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are bonafide studs, and Corey Hart should continue to emerge as one the league's better power/speed threats, but Rickie Weeks may never be the player his potential says he should be, Fielder is unhappy about his contract situation, Bill Hall is changing positions yet again, J.J. Hardy has lost 10 pounds due to an illness (remember Alex Rios, 2006?) and Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, and Manny Parra will always carry injury risks to match their immense talent. Speaking of injury risks, if Eric Gagne gets hurt (which never happens, right?) the Brewers will likely turn to Derrick Turnbow to close games. Yuck.
4. Houston Astros (85-77): This team could lead the N.L. in runs scored in 2008, but the pitching rotation is Roy Oswalt and Pray for Rain. Wandy Rodriguez is the N.L. version of Ervin Santana, Woody Williams is 128 years old, and Shawn Chacon has won a rotation spot. Bleh. The bullpen is solid enough with the addition of Jose Valverde, but they're going to get the Scott Proctor treatment this season.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (75-87): Oh, do these guys stink. Albert Pujols needs Tommy John surgery, and if he goes down this is the worst team baseball. Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement are long-shots to stay healthy, at best. Adam Wainwright is a solid pitcher, but to say there are question marks after him is a bit of an understatement. Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus are another couple of what-ifs, but Ankiel has looked very good this spring. The sooner Colby Rasmus gets to the majors, the better.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (73-91): Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are both good young pitchers, and Matt Morris should have a better year, but this is probably the most boring, faceless team in baseball. Steven Pearce, Andrew McCutchen, and Neil Walker should give fans a reason to head out to PNC in the second half of '08. The Pirates have a bright future, but it won't be this year.
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